Japanese domestic migration trends

In a research note, NLI Research analyzed the 2024 domestic migration trends, when 40 out of 47 prefectures in Japan experienced a "social decrease," meaning a net loss of population due to domestic migration (people moving out exceeding people moving in). Only 7 prefectures had a social increase.

The top 10 social decrease prefectures include Hiroshima (ranking first - or worst - for the fourth consecutive year), Aichi, Hyogo, Shizuoka, Fukushima, Mie, Hokkaido, Ibaraki, Niigata, and Okayama, while the seven prefectures showing a social increase were Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Yamanashi.

This distribution is similar to 2023. However, one change is that Shiga Prefecture moved from a social increase to a social decrease, and Yamanashi Prefecture barely managed to remain in the social increase category (an increase of only 82 people).

Overall, a net 156,933 people moved from the 40 "social decrease" prefectures to the 7 "social increase" prefectures. This is an increase of about 11% compared to the net migration loss in 2023 (141,706 people), showing an acceleration of people moving from areas with population decline to areas with growth despite any "regional revitalization" measures by the former, supported by the national government.

This indicates that more people are moving from areas with population decline to areas with growth.

Women Leaving More Often

Despite generally higher male mobility rates, women tend to leave the social decrease regions more frequently and return less often. This difference results in social decrease areas losing more women than men.

Of the 40 prefectures experiencing social decrease, 32 (80%) had a larger loss of women than men. The average ratio of women leaving compared to men was 1.17. 17 of these 40 areas had a female outflow that was far greater than 1.17 women for every man.

While more men initially leave local areas (from class cohorts), men are more likely to return through "I-turns" (returning to their hometown) or "U-turns" (relocating to rural areas after time elsewhere). Women are less likely to return through these patterns, contributing to a net loss of women.

Prefecture-Specific Examples of Gender Imbalance

• Tochigi Prefecture: Stands out for losing over 1000 women.
• Gunma Prefecture: Had a significant gender imbalance, with women leaving the area 32 times more than men.
• Other regions with higher female outflow: Significant female loss in North Kanto (Tochigi and Gunma) and Kyushu (especially Kumamoto and Miyazaki). These areas, along with Hokkaido, should strengthen their awareness towards reasons for female outflows.

Conclusion

The research note highlights the ongoing challenge of population decline in many Japanese prefectures. The gender disparity, particularly the tendency for social decrease areas to lose more women than men, suggests that these areas need to create environments that attract and retain women, especially in terms of career opportunities and quality of life.

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